By Ding Long
丁隆
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken ended his ninth trip to the Middle East since October last year and returned to Washington empty-handed on August 20. The next day, US President Joe Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the phone and stressed the urgent need to reach an agreement on a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages. However, even the US media admitted that their "last-ditch effort" to promote a ceasefire in Gaza had yielded nothing. Various signs indicate that currently there is no possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza, and the situation in the Middle East remains precarious.
8月20日，美國國務卿布林肯結束了其自去年10月以來的第九次中東之行，“兩手空空”返回華盛頓；總統(tǒng)拜登次日同以色列總理內塔尼亞胡通電話，強調迫切需要達成加沙停火和釋放人質的協(xié)議。但連美媒都承認，他們?yōu)榇俪杉由惩；鹚龀龅摹白詈笠徊币粺o所獲。種種跡象表明，目前加沙局勢中沒有展現(xiàn)出任何停火可能，中東地區(qū)形勢岌岌可危。
Multiple rounds of negotiations have been held between the two sides since the outbreak of the Israel-Palestine conflict in October last year. A three-phase ceasefire agreement proposed by mediators and supported by the UN Security Council has been on the negotiation table. However, disagreements over key details of the ceasefire agreement have made each round of negotiations fruitless. Recently, the resumption of Gaza ceasefire talks in Doha reignited hope within the international community, but still no progress has been made. The parties have now moved to Cairo for further negotiations.
自去年10月巴以沖突爆發(fā)以來，雙方已舉行多輪談判。斡旋方提出并得到聯(lián)合國安理會支持的三階段停火協(xié)議一直擺在談判桌上，但沖突雙方在停火協(xié)議關鍵細節(jié)上的分歧，使每次談判都功虧一簣。近日在多哈重新啟動的停火談判再次燃起國際社會的希望，但未有成果，各方轉戰(zhàn)開羅繼續(xù)談判。
This round of negotiations is taking place against the backdrop of the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and the involvement of Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthi movement in Yemen in the conflict. The mediators, adopting an "all-or-nothing" approach, hope that these negotiations will work a miracle and turn the tide at this critical juncture in the Middle East. Although Hamas refused to participate in direct talks, Israel, the US, Egypt, and Qatar all sent high-level officials, underscoring the importance placed on these negotiations by all parties. However, given the current situation, the talks in Cairo are overshadowed by uncertainty and the outlook remains bleak as key issues are still unresolved. The negotiations, on which all parties placed great hopes, may not escape the fate of failure.
本輪談判是在哈馬斯政治局領導人哈尼亞遇刺，伊朗及黎巴嫩真主黨、也門胡塞武裝等組織卷入沖突的背景下舉行的。斡旋方抱著“畢其功于一役”的心態(tài)，希望本輪談判能夠化腐朽為神奇，在中東局勢千鈞一發(fā)之時力挽狂瀾。除哈馬斯拒絕參加直接談判，以色列、美國、埃及、卡塔爾都派出高級別官員參加，足見各方重視程度。然而，就目前形勢看，由于“堵點”依舊，開羅談判陰云籠罩，前景難言樂觀，被各方寄予厚望的談判或將難逃無疾而終的命運。
Given the special relationship between the US and Israel, the US is undoubtedly the country that can exert the greatest influence on Israel. However, despite US officials' efforts and frequent diplomatic engagements, their actions have not yielded positive results. Within just two days this week, contradictory information was released by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the White House regarding the progress of the Gaza ceasefire talks and the positions of the involved parties. These mixed signals from the US on the Israel-Palestine conflict and ceasefire negotiations have emboldened Israel's hardline actions. On the one hand, the US' mediation efforts are driven by self-interest, primarily motivated by domestic political considerations. On the other hand, the US has provided substantial political, military, and economic support to Israel during the conflict. And even during the critical period of ceasefire negotiations, the US approved up to USD 20 billion aid to Israel and significantly increased its military presence in the Middle East. Such biased and self-serving mediation efforts not only failed to bring about positive outcomes but also undermined the US' image as a "fair mediator."
由于美以間的特殊關系，美國無疑是可以對以色列施加最大影響的國家。但看美方官員四處奔波、忙前忙后，也并沒有起到什么積極作用。本周，在兩天時間內，關于加沙停火談判的進展和各方態(tài)度，布林肯和白宮就釋放出相互矛盾的信息，美方對巴以沖突及停火談判發(fā)出了一系列混亂的信號，縱容了以色列的強硬行為。一方面，美國的斡旋活動出于私利，主要是受其國內政治利益驅動；另一方面，美國在巴以沖突中向以色列提供了大量政治、軍事和經(jīng)濟援助。在停火談判關鍵期，美方批準向以方提供多達200億美元援助，并向中東大量增兵。如此“拉偏架”和私利驅動的斡旋行動，不但無法結出善果，還使美方“公正斡旋人”的人設坍塌。
The ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict has dragged on for nearly 11 months, causing 40,000 deaths and nearly 100,000 injuries in the Gaza Strip and it has become the worst humanitarian disaster in the world. This conflict has also spread to other parts of the Middle East. Its spillover effects continuously heighten geopolitical tensions, turning the region into a powder keg that could blast at any time. At the UN Security Council's open meeting on the Israel-Palestine conflict held on August 22, China made it clear that relying on military means to achieve a "complete victory" in Gaza would only lead to more civilian casualties. It would not create the conditions necessary for the rescue of hostages, nor would it bring peace and stability to Israel and the region. The only viable solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict is the political resolution through the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the implementation of the "two-state solution." China urges influential countries to adopt a sincere, fair, and responsible attitude and urge Israel to cease its military actions in Gaza as soon as possible and to stop the killing of civilians.
本輪巴以沖突已延宕近11個月，造成加沙地帶4萬人死亡，近10萬人受傷，成為世界最嚴重的人道主義災難。這場沖突還波及中東多地，其外溢效應持續(xù)推高中東地緣政治緊張態(tài)勢，使中東成為隨時燃爆的火藥桶。在22日召開的聯(lián)合國安理會巴以問題公開會上，中方明確表示，迷信通過軍事手段在加沙地帶實現(xiàn)“完全勝利”只會造成更多無辜平民傷亡，不會為解救被扣押人員創(chuàng)造條件，也不會為以色列和地區(qū)帶來和平與安寧。實現(xiàn)巴勒斯坦獨立建國、落實“兩國方案”是政治解決巴以問題的唯一可行出路。中方敦促有重要影響力的國家，拿出真誠、公正、負責任的態(tài)度，推動以色列盡早停止在加沙地帶的軍事行動，停止對平民的殺戮。
The US should put aside its selfishness and genuinely do something to achieve a ceasefire. The international community should also make its utmost efforts to strive for peace and put an end to this bloody conflict in Gaza as soon as possible as the one-year anniversary of the conflict approaches.
美國應放下私心，真正為實現(xiàn)停火做點事。國際社會也應為爭取和平付出最大努力，在加沙沖突將滿一年之際，盡快為這場血腥的沖突畫上句號。
(The author is a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute, Shanghai International Studies University.)
（作者是上海外國語大學中東研究所教授）
Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of jmhuiquan.com.
