By Wang Hengwen

About 2,000 soldiers and 60 warplanes from 13 NATO members participated in the recent Steadfast Noon large-scale nuclear exercise, which has been held for three consecutive years after the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out in 2022. Although this year's exercise is of the same scale as before, it has still captured international attention for several reasons.

In terms of background, this exercise is held amid the lingering Russia-Ukraine conflict and America and Russia's lowering of the threshold for using nuclear weapons. The 2022 Nuclear Posture Review issued by the Biden administration largely lowered the threshold for using nuclear weapons by abandoning the No First Use and Sole Purpose policies. The US is also quickening steps to develop low-equivalent tactical nuclear weapons and deploy them in Europe, aggravating nuclear confrontation on the continent.

In terms of duration and location, this year's Steadfast Noon exercise showed new changes. For one thing, its duration lengthened from one week to two weeks, and Finland, which only joined NATO last year, participated as an official member for the first time. For another, the exercise mainly took place in the airspace over the UK and the North Sea, obviously more forward than before and only about 900km from the Russian border at the nearest point. This, combined with the fact that eight military bases were used during the exercise, indicated stronger deterrence against Russia.

In terms of subjects, the exercise was more real-combat-oriented by simulating how to take US-provided nuclear weapons out of the vault safely and load them on warplanes. Although NATO officials stressed that no real ammunition would be used, the type of participating aircraft was full proof that Washington is strongly promoting the operational method of loading F-35 with nuclear weapons to launch nuclear attacks. It is highly likely that the US, in the name of providing "nuclear protection", will deploy nuclear weapon carriers, even new types of nuclear bombs, to East Europe.

NATO's enhanced nuclear exercise on the excuse of growing external threats will exert serious impacts on the regional situation and global strategic stability.

It will escalate regional tension. With NATO's consistent assistance to Ukraine and containment of Russia, the large-scale, high-intensity military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has a high possibility of dragging on. Not long ago, both NATO and Russia announced their military expansion plans, the former planning to have 49 new combat ready brigades, increasing its ground forces by 245,000 troops in total, and the latter planning to increase its number of troops  by another 180,000 troops to drive the total number to 1.5 million. Analysts said the highly charged exercise reflects a rising possibility of head-on confrontation between NATO and Russia, which will further exacerbate the already tense regional security situation.

It will increase the risks of a nuclear arms race. Recent years have seen the US back out of the Treaty on the Limitation of Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems (ABM Treaty), the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, and the Open Skies Treaty, which has seriously undermined global strategic stability and mutual trust between Washington and Moscow. Russia, on its part, has temporarily withdrawn its facilities from inspections under the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START).

The new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte pointed out that nuclear deterrence serves as the cornerstone of the allies' security, and the exercise was aimed to send a clear message to any adversary that NATO will protect and defend all Allies. Angus Lapsley, NATO's Assistant Secretary General for Defence Policy and Planning, made it clear that the organization seeks to deter any adversaries, and principally Russia, in several different ways. Remarks like this may prompt Moscow to join the nuclear arms race and defend its interests by developing nuclear forces, which will eventually cast a shadow of nuclear war over Europe.

The US is the biggest beneficiary of the Steadfast Noon exercise. While it is urging NATO to intensify the containment of Russia through nuclear exercises and other means, it is actually trying to maintain its own hegemony. As the Russia-Ukraine conflict lingers, Europe becomes more reliant on NATO for protection than before and has no choice but to accept America's reinforced nuclear deterrence on the continent, and its deployment of nuclear weapons to more European countries in the name of providing nuclear protection.

By wrapping Europe around its little finger on the grounds of "security", the US can intensify its political control over and military penetration into European allies in the name of "protection" while also driving international capital back to America. There are numerous signs that Europe, which is eager but unable to achieve "strategic independence", may once again find itself deeply mired in a vortex of "balance of nuclear terror".